Evidence-Backed Forecasts for Prediction Markets

AI-powered probability reports with cited sources, market divergence analysis, and public accountability. Every call is graded after settlement.

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  • Every forecast includes linked evidence
  • Model vs market divergence analysis
  • Public W/L grading after settlement
Monitoring 1,153+ active markets41,185+ forecast reports generatedEvidence from real-time web sources

How It Works

From Question to Forecast in Seconds

Our AI agents replace hours of manual research with one simple workflow.

1. Choose a Market

Select any active prediction market from Polymarket or Kalshi. Our system tracks hundreds automatically.

2. AI Gathers Evidence

Specialized agents scan primary sources, official data, and credible reporting to build a probability model.

3. Review Your Report

Get a structured brief with probability estimates, source citations, and conditions that would change the outlook.

Example Report

What a Forecast Report Looks Like

Here is exactly what you get. Every report follows this structure.

Sample Report

Divergence Analysis

  • Yes

    Model 62% | Market 54%

    +8.0 pts

  • No

    Model 38% | Market 46%

    -8.0 pts

The Evidence Trail

Strategic Invalidation

  • 1.Core CPI prints 0.4+ points above consensus.
  • 2.Two-year yield rises above the prior weekly range.
  • 3.Fed signals a higher terminal rate.

Markets We’re Tracking

Live
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+1,141 more markets monitored

Why Polyforecast

More Than a Prediction. A Full Research Brief.

Every report is structured for clarity, grounded in evidence, and graded after the fact.

  • Cited Evidence, Not Opinions

    Every forecast links to the primary sources it drew from. Verify any claim yourself.

  • Public Accountability

    When markets resolve, forecasts are graded win or loss and published. No deletions, no edits. Standard sports and esports match markets grade from a snapshot taken at least 60 minutes before close, while season-long outrights can still update until settlement.

  • Divergence Analysis

    See where our model’s probability differs from the live market price and understand why.

  • Invalidation Conditions

    Every report lists specific events that would change the forecast. Know when the thesis breaks.

Pricing

Choose Access

Public scoreboard browsing is free. Live active-market forecast access starts on Pro.

Free

$0

Public scoreboard browsing, prices, charts, and settled report access with no card required.

  • Browse all markets and scoreboard
  • View live prices, charts, and market outcomes
  • Full access to settled market reports
  • Preview active market detail before upgrading
Create Free Account
Most Popular

Pro

$49/mo

Core live-forecast access for individual users who need accountable active-market coverage.

  • Live forecast access for active markets
  • Up to 20 concurrently monitored markets
  • Demand-driven refresh with evidence + citations
  • Model-graded public settlements board
  • Priority support
Start Pro

Trader

$149/mo

Higher-capacity coverage for users who need heavier monitoring across more markets.

  • Everything in Pro
  • Up to 100 concurrently monitored markets
  • Faster queue priority for refresh requests
  • Team seats and shared workflows coming soon
Start Trader

Verified Settlements (Model-Only)

W 242 / L 22
264 model-graded eligible calls · 91.7% accuracy since launch · latest 14 eligible graded settlements
Resolved markets without a completed model forecast are excluded from this board. Baseline fallbacks mirror market pricing and are not counted here. For standard sports and esports match and prop markets, grading uses the latest completed model snapshot from at least 60 minutes before market end. Season-long outright markets stay updateable until close.
Last eligible model settlement: Jul 12, 06:00 UTC · 33,217 of 33,481 resolved markets excluded from this board since launch

FAQ

Common questions

Is there a free plan?

Yes. Free accounts can browse all markets, view live prices and charts, access the public scoreboard, and read full reports for settled markets. Active market AI forecasts stay locked until you upgrade to a paid plan.

Can I cancel anytime?

Yes. You can cancel your subscription at any time from your account page. Your access continues until the end of the current billing period. Refunds are not provided for partial billing periods as the service delivers informational content immediately upon access.

What's the difference between Pro and Trader?

Pro is the core self-serve plan for individual users and supports up to 20 monitored markets. Trader raises that limit to 100 and gets faster queue priority plus upcoming team workflow features.

Is this financial advice?

No. Polyforecast provides informational forecasting reports only. It does not provide trading, investment, or legal advice.

How is accuracy tracked?

Each completed model forecast is timestamped at publication. Once a market resolves, that completed model call is compared to the resolved result and logged publicly. Baseline fallback snapshots that simply mirror market pricing are not counted in the public record. Standard sports and esports match or prop markets use the latest completed model snapshot from at least 60 minutes before market end, while season-long outrights stay updateable until close.

How often do forecasts update?

Pro and Trader coverage refreshes throughout the day on demand and schedule. If a model cycle falls back to baseline, the report is explicitly labeled.

What sources are used?

Reports cite primary public sources such as official releases, market data pages, and institutional publications.

Why might a forecast match market pricing?

Some forecasts confirm the existing market baseline. In those cases the report explains why no meaningful divergence was detected.