Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Reasoning

Paraguay is participating in the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Group D alongside the United States (co-host), Australia, and the UEFA Playoff C winner. Paraguay is not considered a top contender for the World Cup title. Historically, Paraguay has never won the World Cup, with their best performance being a quarterfinal appearance in 2010. They are placed in a challenging group with the host nation USA. The baseline probability of 0.25% for Paraguay winning the tournament is already very generous given their historical performance and current squad quality. No evidence suggests Paraguay has significantly improved to challenge for the title.

Key Factors

• •Paraguay has never won the FIFA World Cup
• •Paraguay is in a challenging Group D with host nation USA, Australia, and a UEFA playoff winner
• •Paraguay's best World Cup result was a quarterfinal in 2010
• •Paraguay is not ranked among the top favorites for the 2026 tournament
• •The expanded 48-team format gives more teams a chance but top favorites remain European and South American powerhouses