Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Reasoning

The trip is scheduled to begin on March 31 and run through April 2. The key question is whether 'by March 31' means arriving on March 31 counts. If the trip starts on March 31, he would technically be visiting China on that date, which could resolve as Yes. However, there are complicating factors: (1) an analyst from The Asia Group notes a 'low-to-moderate' chance the trip could be postponed or cancelled due to US-Israel strikes on Iran, downgrading from an earlier 80% probability; (2) the market asks 'by March 31' which could be interpreted as before or on March 31 - the trip begins March 31 so this is borderline; (3) there are still ~29 days until the scheduled date, leaving room for cancellation. The combination of the trip being scheduled right on the boundary date and the noted risk of cancellation/postponement due to geopolitical events (Iran strikes) makes this roughly a coin flip leaning slightly toward No, as any delay would push it past the deadline and the cancellation risk is non-trivial.

Key Factors

• •Trip officially scheduled for March 31 - April 2, right on the boundary of the market's deadline
• •Analyst notes increased risk of postponement/cancellation due to US-Israel strikes on Iran
• •Ambiguity in whether arriving on March 31 counts as 'by March 31'
• •White House confirmed the trip as of late February, but China has been cautious in confirming specifics
• •Nearly a month remains before the scheduled date, leaving time for disruptions