Will Red Star Belgrade win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
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AI Forecast
Reasoning
Red Star Belgrade made it through the knockout phase play-offs (defeating Lille 1-0 in the first leg on Feb 19, 2026) and are among the Round of 16 teams. However, winning the entire Europa League from this stage is extremely unlikely for a Serbian club. With 16 teams remaining, even with equal probability each team would have ~6.25% chance, but Red Star Belgrade is considered a lower-tier competitor compared to clubs like Aston Villa, Lille, and other top European sides. They are a competitive team that has shown quality in this campaign, but the depth of competition from stronger leagues makes their overall tournament win probability very low, estimated around 3%.
Key Factors
- •Red Star Belgrade qualified for Round of 16 after defeating Lille in play-offs
- •16 teams remain in the competition with stronger clubs from top leagues
- •Red Star Belgrade is a Serbian club competing against clubs from top 5 European leagues
- •Historical precedent shows clubs from smaller leagues rarely win Europa League
Sources (3)
2025/26 Europa League: Meet the round of 16 teams - UEFA.com
The race to win the Europa League is heating up with 16 teams remaining following the conclusion of the knockout phase play-offs.
Red Star Belgrade vs. Lille - Live Score - February 26, 2026
2025-26 UEFA Europa League Knockout: Feb 26, 2026. | 2/19 | Lille LIL (A) | W1-0 |
Lille to face Red Star Belgrade in the Europa League play-offs
The Ligue 1 side will look to get even with Red Star Belgrade after losing to them in Matchday 4 of the Europa League.
Generated 2026-03-07T07:31:27.500Z · v1
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