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Will Bryan Maxwell be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?

activeEnds 3/17/2026View on Polymarket

Current Prices

Yes
0.1%
No
100.0%
0%25%50%75%100%3/10 18:003/10 18:003/10 18:003/10 18:003/10 18:00
Yes 0%
No 100%

AI Forecast

Refreshing — showing last available forecast. Auto-refresh in 30s.
HIGH confidenceMODELclaude-sonnet-4-6
No
98.5%-1.5%
Yes
1.5%+1.5%

Reasoning

Bryan Maxwell is one of approximately 10 Democratic candidates running in the March 17, 2026 primary for Dick Durbin's Senate seat. He is an environmental research scientist at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign running on socialist/progressive policies. The primary field includes more prominent candidates like Robin Kelly (a sitting congresswoman). Maxwell appears to be a lower-profile candidate without significant institutional support, fundraising, or name recognition compared to frontrunners. While he has received some media coverage, his chances of winning the primary against established politicians are very low. The baseline probability of 0.05% is slightly too low given he is an actual declared candidate with some media presence, but his probability remains very small - perhaps around 1.5%.

Key Factors

  • Bryan Maxwell is one of ~10 candidates in a competitive Democratic primary
  • More prominent candidates like Robin Kelly (sitting congresswoman) are in the race
  • Maxwell is a relatively unknown research scientist without major institutional backing
  • He is running on progressive/socialist platform which may limit mainstream Democratic support
  • Primary is scheduled for March 17, 2026

Sources (4)

Generated 2026-03-10T18:57:13.061Z · v1

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