Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Reasoning

As of March 30, 2026, with only one day remaining until the deadline, there is no evidence of an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The ISW assessment from March 29, 2026 indicates ongoing Russian offensive operations, and the March 31, 2025 assessment noted that Ukraine and Russia had not concluded even a maritime ceasefire agreement. While there have been diplomatic discussions and peace negotiations throughout 2025-2026, no mutually agreed halt in military engagement has been publicly announced. The probability is slightly elevated above baseline due to the possibility of a last-minute announcement, but remains very low given the current state of active conflict and lack of any imminent ceasefire signals.

Key Factors

• •ISW March 29, 2026 assessment shows ongoing Russian offensive operations with no ceasefire in sight
• •Only one day remains until the March 31, 2026 deadline
• •No publicly announced mutual ceasefire agreement exists as of the assessment date
• •Historical pattern of failed ceasefire negotiations throughout the conflict
• •Russia's ongoing demands for conditions that Ukraine has not accepted