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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

activeEnds 3/31/2026View on Polymarket

Current Prices

Yes
100.0%
No
0.0%
0%25%50%75%100%3/304/84/174/265/5
Yes 100%
No 0%

AI Forecast

Refreshing — showing last available forecast. Auto-refresh in 30s.
HIGH confidenceMODELclaude-sonnet-4-6
Yes
99.0%-1.0%
No
1.0%+1.0%

Reasoning

Multiple credible sources confirm that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed during combined U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), Al Jazeera, DW, and Arab News all report his death. Al Jazeera reports that Iran postponed Khamenei's farewell ceremony as of March 4, 2026, and Arab News confirms he was replaced by his son Mojtaba. This occurred well before the March 31 deadline. The evidence is overwhelming and consistent across multiple independent sources.

Key Factors

  • Khamenei killed in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026
  • Multiple major news outlets confirm his death
  • Iran postponed farewell ceremony as of March 4, 2026
  • Replaced by son Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader
  • Event occurred before the March 31 deadline

Sources (4)

Generated 2026-03-30T15:42:12.299Z · v199

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