Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on March 12?

Reasoning

Historical climate data for Seoul in March shows average daily high temperatures ranging from 44°F (6.7°C) to 56°F (13.3°C), with lows rarely falling below 34°F (1°C). The average high in early March is around 6-7°C, meaning a high of 5°C or below is possible but below the typical range. Weather data indicates daily highs in March typically reach 10-12°C. A high of 5°C or below would represent an unusually cold day, occurring perhaps 10-15% of the time in early March based on the stated range. The baseline probability of 0.05% seems too low given that early March can still see cold days. I'm adjusting upward to approximately 7% to reflect the realistic climatological probability of a cold day in early March Seoul.

Key Factors

• •Average March daily highs in Seoul range from 6-13°C, making 5°C or below possible but below average
• •Early March (around March 12) is still transitional winter-spring period with occasional cold snaps
• •Historical data shows daily highs rarely fall below 34°F (1°C) but 5°C threshold is within plausible range