Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 12?

Reasoning

The baseline probability suggests 13°C or higher is quite unlikely for Seoul in mid-March. However, I need to consider the current weather context. The evidence shows that as of March 10, 2026, Seoul's weather was being reported, and historical data shows temperatures in late February reached up to 63.1°F (17.3°C) on Feb 21. The average high for Seoul in March is typically around 8-10°C, making 13°C above average but not impossible. The March 9 market was asking about 11°C or higher, suggesting temperatures around that range were plausible. Given that mid-March can see warming trends and the recent historical data shows some warmer days in late February, 13°C on March 12 is more likely than the baseline suggests but still not the most probable outcome. The baseline of 5.5% seems too low given seasonal variability - Seoul can reach 13°C in March during warm spells. I estimate approximately 25-30% probability.

Key Factors

• •Seoul's average March high temperature is 8-10°C, making 13°C above average
• •Historical data shows Seoul reached 17.3°C on Feb 21, 2026, indicating warm spells are possible
• •March 9 market referenced 11°C threshold, suggesting temperatures in that range were being considered
• •Current weather as of March 10 appears to be in normal range
• •Mid-March can see warming trends in Seoul