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Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 9?

activeEnds 3/9/2026View on Polymarket

Current Prices

Yes
0.0%
No
100.0%
0%25%50%75%100%3/83/93/103/103/11
Yes 0%
No 100%

AI Forecast

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MEDIUM confidenceMODELclaude-sonnet-4-6
No
82.0%-12.5%
Yes
18.0%+12.5%

Reasoning

The Met Office forecast snippet mentions '12°C Maximum feels like temperature' which could correspond to March 9 given the sequence of temperatures listed (9°C, 11°C, 12°C). The BBC Weather forecast shows Sunday March 8 with sunny intervals, suggesting a warming trend. Average March highs in Munich are around 42-51°F (6-10°C), with 12°C being on the higher end but plausible. The Met Office data showing a progression to 12°C maximum feels-like temperature aligns with March 9 being the next day after March 8. This is a specific temperature prediction (exactly 12°C), which has inherently low probability, but the forecast evidence suggests temperatures around this range are plausible for March 9.

Key Factors

  • Met Office forecast shows 12°C maximum feels-like temperature in sequence suggesting March 9
  • Average March highs in Munich are 6-10°C, making 12°C slightly above average but possible
  • BBC Weather shows sunny intervals on March 8, suggesting warming trend into March 9
  • Exact temperature match (12°C) is a narrow target requiring precise forecast accuracy

Sources (3)

Generated 2026-03-08T20:06:56.870Z · v1

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