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Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 9?

activeEnds 3/9/2026View on Polymarket

Current Prices

Yes
0.0%
No
100.0%
0%25%50%75%100%3/83/93/103/103/11
Yes 0%
No 100%

AI Forecast

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MEDIUM confidenceMODELclaude-sonnet-4-6
Yes
12.0%+10.2%
No
88.0%-10.2%

Reasoning

The question asks specifically whether the highest temperature in Munich will be exactly 11°C on March 9. The Met Office forecast snippet mentions '11°C Maximum feels like temperature' which could be relevant to the actual forecast for around that date. The average daytime high for Munich in March is around 11°C (52°F), making 11°C a plausible temperature. However, the question requires an exact match to 11°C, which is a narrow range. Weather forecasts typically show temperatures in whole degrees, and 11°C is right at the average for early March in Munich. The Met Office data showing 11°C as a maximum feels-like temperature (with actual max potentially slightly different) and the GoTripzi source noting 'Daytime highs around 11°C' for March 2026 suggest this is a realistic possibility. Given that 11°C is the average high for this time of year and there's some forecast evidence pointing to this temperature range, I'm adjusting the probability upward from the baseline of 1.8% to approximately 12%, reflecting that while 11°C is plausible and near the average, exact temperature matching is still uncertain.

Key Factors

  • Average daytime high in Munich in early March is approximately 11°C
  • Met Office forecast shows 11°C maximum feels-like temperature for Munich around this period
  • GoTripzi forecasts daytime highs around 11°C for Munich in March 2026
  • Exact temperature matching requires precision - temperature could be 10°C or 12°C instead
  • Weather variability means exact degree matching has inherent uncertainty

Sources (3)

Generated 2026-03-08T20:07:11.746Z · v1

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