Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?

Reasoning

The evidence shows that for the immediately preceding period (March 7-9, 2026), the market assigned 100% probability to the '90-114' tweets bucket, suggesting Elon Musk posted in that range during that period. This is strong evidence that his tweeting rate during this timeframe is consistent with the 90-114 range. The baseline probability of 0.0005 appears to be a default/placeholder rather than a calibrated estimate. Given that the prior period resolved at 90-114 tweets, there is meaningful probability that the March 9-11 period also falls in this range. However, tweet counts can vary significantly, and there are many other possible buckets (below 90, 115-139, 140-164, etc., up to 240+). Elon Musk is known for high tweet volume, and 90-114 over a 48-hour period represents roughly 45-57 tweets per day, which is plausible but represents just one of many possible ranges.

Key Factors

• •Prior period (March 7-9) resolved at 90-114 tweets with 100% market confidence
• •Elon Musk's tweet volume is variable and can span multiple ranges
• •The 90-114 range is one of several possible buckets, reducing individual probability
• •Baseline probability appears to be a default placeholder, not calibrated