Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Reasoning

Based on available evidence, Elon Musk tweets at approximately 50-60 tweets per day, which over a 7-day window would project to 350-420 total tweets. The range of 360-379 falls within this projected range, making it a plausible but not certain outcome. The baseline probability of 37.7% for Yes seems reasonable given that this is one of many possible ranges (each covering 20 tweets) within a broader distribution. The evidence from the March 3-10 period suggests tweet volumes in the 350-420 range are expected, which means the 360-379 range captures a meaningful portion of the probability mass. However, there's significant uncertainty as Musk's tweeting behavior can vary considerably based on current events, DOGE activities, and other factors. The baseline probabilities appear well-calibrated given the available information.

Key Factors

• •Elon Musk's typical tweet rate of 50-60 tweets/day projects to 350-420 tweets over 7 days
• •The 360-379 range falls within the projected central range of tweet activity
• •High variability in Musk's tweeting behavior based on current events and DOGE activities
• •Multiple Polymarket ranges exist suggesting distributed probability across many outcomes