← Dashboard

Total Kills Over/Under 63.5 in Game 1?

activeEnds 3/14/2026View on Polymarket

Current Prices

Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
0%25%50%75%100%3/13 20:003/13 20:003/13 20:003/13 20:003/13 20:00
Over 0%
Under 100%

AI Forecast

Refreshing — showing last available forecast. Auto-refresh in 30s.
LOW confidenceMODELclaude-sonnet-4-6
Over
10.5%+10.0%
Under
89.6%-10.0%

Reasoning

The baseline probabilities strongly favor Under (99.55% vs 0.45% for Over), suggesting the market has strong conviction that total kills will be under 63.5. In Dota 2, 63.5 total kills is a relatively high threshold for a single game. Average Dota 2 professional games typically see 30-50 total kills, though high-kill games can exceed 60+. The extreme baseline probability for Under suggests either strong market consensus or that this line was set very high. However, the baseline of 0.45% for Over seems extremely low - even accounting for the high threshold, there's some non-trivial probability of a high-kill game. I'm adjusting slightly upward from the baseline for Over to account for natural variance, but maintaining strong conviction for Under given the high kill threshold and typical professional Dota 2 game patterns.

Key Factors

  • 63.5 kills is a high threshold for professional Dota 2 games
  • Average professional Dota 2 games typically see 30-50 total kills
  • Extreme baseline probability (99.55%) strongly favors Under
  • Limited specific game data available from evidence

Sources (1)

Generated 2026-03-13T20:45:42.122Z · v1

This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Prediction market participation carries risk of loss. Polyforecast is not affiliated with Polymarket. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions.