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Total Kills Over/Under 58.5 in Game 1?

activeEnds 3/14/2026View on Polymarket

Current Prices

Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
0%25%50%75%100%3/13 20:003/13 20:003/13 20:003/13 20:003/13 20:00
Over 0%
Under 100%

AI Forecast

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HIGH confidenceMODELclaude-sonnet-4-6
Over
0.4%0.0%
Under
99.6%0.0%

Reasoning

The baseline probabilities are extremely skewed toward Under (99.55%) with only 0.45% for Over. The MarketAhead evidence snippet states 'Game 1 is never' (likely indicating the game never reached 59+ kills), strongly supporting the Under outcome. A total of 58.5 kills in a Dota 2 game is quite high - typical professional Dota 2 games average around 30-50 kills total, making 59+ kills an unusual occurrence. The evidence from MarketAhead directly references this specific market and implies the game resolved Under. The baseline probabilities already reflect this near-certainty.

Key Factors

  • MarketAhead snippet suggests the game never reached the Over threshold
  • 58.5 kills is a very high threshold for professional Dota 2 games
  • Baseline probability of 99.55% for Under reflects strong market consensus

Sources (1)

Generated 2026-03-13T20:46:13.772Z · v1

This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Prediction market participation carries risk of loss. Polyforecast is not affiliated with Polymarket. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions.